Chance

Someone I know has spent about £2 a week on lottery tickets for the last 50 years.

It’s a well-known fact that you’re more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery.

So why do we buy tickets?

Because we think we’ve a “chance” of winning.

Chance is subjective. It describes likelihood.

Probability is a branch of maths. It’s a measurement of chance. According to the above article, there’s a 1 in 3,000 chance of being struck by lightning during the average lifetime.

We take our chances on things because we think we know better than we do.

We’d be better off doing the maths and discovering that we’re not.

Working out the probability is a much better way of making decisions.

But we often don’t do this because we’re not wired to and comically bad as calculating risk.

Have got an opportunity this week?